Bottom Line Up Front: While I doubt Indivisible achieved a turnout of seven million protestors on Saturday, it kind of doesn’t matter. Turnout was still in the millions in an election off-year (which is a feat), and they’re still building the narrative of a popular movement that opposes the ‘illegitimate power grab’ that’s likely to happen in the midterm elections. The building blocks of a Color Revolution continue to be assembled. - M.S.
Report Back
On Saturday, 18 October, I attended my local No Kings protest, with a turnout of about 700 protestors. This was about the same size as the original No Kings protest we had back in June. It was for the most part a collection of establishment Democrats – probably 75% Boomers with 10% college students and 20% in-between college and Boomer age.
I arrived early and checked in at the organizer table to volunteer. They eventually gave me a tally counter (the “clicker”) and asked me to get an official count during the protest, which is how I know accurately about how many people attended! Local news reported about a thousand in attendance, which is an overestimate, and an error that I think is likely to have been made across the country.
The atmosphere was fairly jovial and friendly, but low energy. About midway through the protest, a guy with a loudspeaker roamed the protest lines, trying to gin up the “Show me what democracy looks like / This is what democracy looks like” and “When democracy is under attack, what do we do? / Stand up, fight back” chants. It drew mixed participation because most of the protesters didn’t know the chants, which are pretty standard at left wing protests.
I saw some professional protesters – for instance, the guy leading the chants, along with a couple yellow-safety-vest-wearing protest marshals, who are trained in keeping protests orderly. For instance, one of the protest marshals walked along the sidewalk, instructing protesters to keep the sidewalk clear to not run afoul of any city ordinances. I also saw 4-5 plain clothes security volunteers who were affiliated with organizers, and who were running bubblepack VHF/UHF radios. Law enforcement presence was light, with a couple marked police cruisers and four uniformed officers.
Yesterday, Indivisible organizers and media outlets claimed a national turnout of seven million for the No Kings 2.0 protest. I have significant doubts that the five million they claimed back in June was accurate, and I don’t for a second believe that seven million turned out nationally on Saturday. I think three million is plausible for No Kings 1 and I don’t believe No Kings 2 was substantially larger. Doing some ‘back of the napkin math,’ I have no doubt that both events numbered in the low millions, which is still a substantial mobilization for an off-year election cycle.
Analysis: What Is To Be Done?
Unfortunately, I also saw on social media many conservatives who are misreading the situation. By far, the worst take was that the No Kings protest was intended to kick off a Color Revolution and force President Trump from office. To reiterate from previous reports, we’re in the third inning of a nine inning game that will likely escalate in 2027 and could culminate in 2028-29. So, in short, no – this protest was not intended to be a decisive event.
Protests this early exist for three reasons:
Large national protest mobilizations show Democrats there’s “grassroots” support for hardline political opposition to Trump. This is an optics factor.
They show vulnerable Republicans that Democrat voter mobilization will unseat them in the midterms if they side with Trump on key issues. This is a deterrence factor.
Indivisible has built what may be the largest get out the vote (GOTV) army in U.S. history. Websites like Mobilize collect email addresses and phone numbers from people who sign up to attend these protests. These lists will be used to turn reliable Democrat voters into activists for voter registration drives, door knocking for political campaigns, and other GOTV efforts heading into the midterms. This could result in many millions of newly registered voters, while campaign managers use this treasure trove of voter data to activate voters during early voting and on Election Day: Tuesday, 03 November 2026.
Protests this year aren’t intended to topple the government or force President Trump from office. Part of what’s being built in this phase is a narrative. Think of this as a shaping operation that conditions certain beliefs in mainstream politics – the largest protests in U.S. history, the largest Democrat voter registration drives in U.S. history, the largest voter turnout in U.S. history, and yet Democrats will still likely lose the midterm elections… and they’ll say the elections were stolen.
Color Revolutions can only succeed when the legitimacy of a ruling government (or dictator) is credibly challenged. Characterizing the midterm elections as being “stolen” through mid-decade redistricting is part of this illegitimacy narrative.
Remember, Republicans actually are in the process of redistricting Democrat-held seats into reliable Republican districts. Texas, for instance, will erase five Dem seats, adding five GOP seats, if the new law survives the courts. We’re also awaiting a decision from the Supreme Court to overturn a portion of the Voting Rights Act, which established as many as 16 majority-minority districts in the American South. (The law established that majority-minority areas, which have majority black populations, basically get their own district for minority representation. Some argue this is unconstitutional racial gerrymandering.)
In all, Democrats say they stand to lose up to 27 House seats through various redistricting efforts this year. The Trump administration and many conservatives, on the other hand, argue that Democrats have enjoyed an illegitimate number of seats through unconstitutional laws and the 2020 Census – which counted illegal aliens for apportionment in the 2021 redistricting process – and that the GOP lawsuits and redistricting efforts are simply restoring an appropriate balance of representation.
This is where the fight for legitimacy is. Which side can condition a belief in a plurality or majority of Americans that their side is correct and legal, and therefore legitimate? Well, we’re going to find out next year.
Either way, I expect greater civil unrest in 2026:
If Democrats win back a House majority, they’ll have “inside” power to work their inside-outside strategy – that is, House Democrats working on the inside of government to stop the Trump agenda, with social power consisting of mass mobilization protests, direct action demonstrations, and pressure campaigns against Republicans, working against the administration from the outside.
If Republicans keep the House majority, it will probably be because of redistricting. Of the past 20 midterm elections, the incumbent president’s party has lost the House majority 18 times (or roughly 90% of the time). The incumbent party is historically likely to lose Senate seats as well, but the swings are typically not as swift as the House. Democrats will characterize a Republican majority in the House and Senate as an illegitimate power grab, claiming that Congressional power was stolen, that this stolen Congress is illegitimate and is ushering in the fascist dictatorship they’re fighting against, which will enable a whole new range of escalatory action. If you’ll remember my reporting back in March of this year, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) characterized the need to eventually use “exceptional tactics,” which we’re likely to see no later than 2027.
But it’s not the protests that topple governments in Color Revolutions. It’s convincing elites to defect, and encouraging a plurality or majority of civil society – business, labor, faith, academia, civil service, and military/police – to publicly oppose an illegitimate government, or at least end public support for it.
This is the political and social fight ahead of us: which side can gain greater support for their cause, or in other words, the greater claim on legitimacy?
Of the nine classic Color Revolutions, six have coincided with “stolen” elections, one was triggered by the assassination of the prime minister, and the other two were triggered by an illegal expansion of executive power – which is to say that while there’s a good chance we see the final phase of a Color Revolution in 2028-29, it could also happen prior to the 2028 general election.
So, to conclude, while I doubt Indivisible achieved a turnout of seven million protestors on Saturday, it kind of doesn’t matter. Turnout was still in the millions in an election off-year (which is a feat), and they’re still building the narrative of a popular movement that opposes the ‘illegitimate power grab’ that’s likely to happen in the midterm elections. The building blocks of a Color Revolution continue to be assembled. - M.S.
I drove by three groups of No Kings protesters. I rolled the window down and yelled “TRUMP 2028!”
Well that lit them up!😂😂 They yelled “FUCK YOU!” Well that was such a surprise! It’s as if they are suffering from TDS🤔