No Inauguration riots. No insurgency. Wha happened?

ADMIN NOTE: This article is based on an X thread from yesterday.

A lot of people predicted Far Left / Antifa riots and insurgency if Trump won the November election. Then nothing happened.

Then the riots were coming once Trump was inaugurated. Nothing happened again.

So what did happen?

First things first: Antifa are revolutionaries. They believe in their revolution.

Their problem is that no one else does.

No member of the establishment elite wants to overthrow the government and replace it with the promise of an anarcho-communist utopia.

But there are factions of the establishment elite who are happy to use Antifa like the unwitting tools they are.

And that is really all they are: useful idiots. They were used by the same class of elites for which they espouse so much hatred. They're just don’t recognize it.

From 2015-2021, Antifa were essentially parochial insurgent organizations. They had manpower, support, resources, and later some had funding. They had depth.

And elites used Antifa, first as a cudgel against right wing organizing and then as a full-blown crisis against the Trump administration.

The goal for the Obama-Marxist OFA and "Deep State" crowd was to force Trump from office and destroy the MAGA movement (the counter-elites).

For 4 years, they built up progressive activists, social justice warriors, Black Lives Matter, Antifa and other Far Left militants which were unleashed in Summer 2020.

Elites ultimately failed to force Trump from office, but only after years of political warfare also failed.

So they had to "fortify" the 2020 election in order to lock Trump and the burgeoning counter-elites out of power.

(And they may have gone even further in July 2024. That’s TBD.)

The bottom line is they blew their wad in 2020.

They destroyed the perception of moral authority, exposed the "Deep State," and -- most importantly -- they exhausted their shock troops.

All this left our country deeply scarred. So much so that they had to change strategy.

Any faction of elites trying to use Antifa (or any other violent social movement) today faces three major limiting factors.

The first is atrophy. Far Left militants describe being exhausted which explains the low turnout. Some events have even been cancelled due to lack of interest or participation. One militant said the thought of a 2025 insurrection was "laughable" for this reason.

The second limiting factor is increased risk of arrest. Yes, they're actually being arrested now. The Portland Police Bureau has described counterinsurgency tactics being used against Antifa. No one is kneeling for BLM or Palestine. There is no more room to riot.

And the third limiting factor is that the national mood has soured against Far Left violence. Millions of moderates have red pilled since 2020. Trump won the popular vote. City leaders don't want to see businesses disrupted again, and businesses don’t want their windows smashed. Acquiescence to Far Left violence is probably over.

So if you're the Obama-Marxist/OFA cabal that organized and fomented the 2020 popular revolution, ask yourself this:

Is now the time to reprise violent social movements to counter Trump? Under conditions where Far Left violence is unpopular? Where support has evaporated?

Of course not.

The attempted popular revolution in 2020 took four years to build. You don't "cold start" these things from dormancy.

So knowing all this, it was entirely predictable that Antifa would be a non-factor from the election to the inauguration.

I spent months trying to tell people through posts and videos that Far Left groups were, in fact, not gearing up for another national insurrection. (Here’s a post from July 2024.)

So, I hope this post is helpful in explaining where we are now. I’m am working my way through what to expect in 2025 and beyond.