How Civil Wars Start, Part 1

Here's some background on the biggest development since the 2020 coup

Background: On Monday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed federal agencies to pause all federal grants and loans, and conduct a comprehensive review of all federal financial assistance programs. (As of yesterday, a federal judge has blocked the pause and OMB just now lifted it.)

Why Now: Michael Anton, a former Trump national security staffer, has rejoined the Trump administration.

In his 2020 book, The Stakes, Anton describes how left wing elites “augment, entrench, and perpetuate [their] privilege and power.”

Anton proposes the destruction of the existing elite, the creation of a “new elite,” and “the reclamation of cultural power… an alternative culture within but against the regime – within the belly of the beast but indigestible by it.”

Political action should take place within “schools, churches, clubs, women’s groups, youth organizations, civic and professional associations, local government, the military and police forces, and even in the much-dreaded labor unions to create a radicalized Middle American consciousness.”

Anton described how taxpayer-derived federal funding fuels left wing social programs, which he says must ultimately be disrupted:

“Cut off federal funding for all such dreck–basically everything but science, defense, and medicine… All grants should be contingent on a series of reforms that guarantee protections for speech and civil rights.”

These themes also appear in the Mandate for Leadership, aka Project 2025:

“Cutting off taxpayer funding to entities that promote woke ideologies should be a priority for the next Administration. Federal resources should not subsidize organizations that undermine foundational American values.”

Impact: The OMB pause impacted up to $3 trillion in federal spending programs, and caused political backlash against the Trump administration. Democrats claimed that millions of Americans had Medicare and other assistance programs disrupted.

The Trump administration likely intends to get a Supreme Court decision on the constitutionality of the Impoundment Control Act of 1974, which blocks the President from pausing spending appropriated by Congress.

Outlook: While the legality of the OMB pause is in limbo, Trump administration officials will continue pushing to disrupt federal grants and programs that funnel taxpayer money to left wing nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

Anton is clear that this is an imperative for the deconstruction of the existing elite and the creation of a new elite. For their part, progressive activists and NGOs have also been clear that their strategy is to fracture the MAGA Coalition.

Implications: First, this is not simple political warfare. This is an intra-elite conflict over control of state resources and cultural institutions, and it’s important because intra-elite conflict historically leads to civil war and state breakdown.

Intra-elite conflict is seen in the lead up to the French Revolution and English Civil War, where the counter-elite faction attacks the elite’s monopoly on power. It's also seen prior to fragmentation in the late Roman Republic and inter-war Weimar Germany.

If the Trump administration is successful, then progressive NGOs will see a reduction in employment, organizing capability, and influence-building through social services. This is an existential crisis for establishment elites. These are the roots of their power and influence.

Frankly, success here means another national crisis on the order of 2020, and likely worse.

The bedrock of progressive power is being destroyed. The Left won't sit back and watch it happen. Historically, these conflicts can escalate and lead to state breakdown.

We've previously covered how the left wing response has been pretty toothless so far, albeit we are just over one week in. But even senior advisors on the Left are questioning what the plan is.

(Former Bernie Sanders and AOC staffer, and co-founder of Justice Democrats)

Here's my guess: the courts will remain the primary battlefield through 2026. The strategy is to inflict policy losses via lawsuits where they're able, foment popular dissatisfaction against Trump's policy wins, and prepare to win majorities in a big blue wave in the midterms.

The most dangerous scenario is that progressive elites are unable to grind down and stop the Trump revolution through the 2026 midterms, which makes the next two years even more dangerous.

We could see something on the order of 2020 again because this is an existential threat. And I do think a Color Revolution is on the table if legal pathways aren’t enough to stop the deconstruction of the administrative state under Trump.

As always, this is a topic I’m following daily. I’ll continue to publish updates here. Thank you for the support. - M.S.