Far Left SITREP for Friday, 27 DEC 24
First, I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas. I’m back in the office and getting ready to start tracking anti-Trump Inauguration Day efforts.
Progressive and revolutionary left organizing has been pretty slow overall, even after the November elections. It’s been much more muted than what we saw in 2016-2017.
The “Trump Resistance 2.0” this year is smaller, and has a lesser sense of urgency going into to 2025 as compared to 2017, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Inauguration Day protests turned out to be smaller than 2017, as well. The “pussy hat” protest on 21 JAN 17 drew an estimated 200,000 protestors. I will be surprised if the J20 2025 protests draw more than that.
Progressive groups have already outlined their strategy, which centers on political resistance, lawfare (tying up the Trump admin in the courts), local organizing to lay the groundwork for a Blue Wave in 2026. They’re pursuing the “inside-outside” strategy where social justice organizations and political activists work from the outside, while progressive politicians and the D.C. bureaucracy operates against Trump from the inside. Mass mobilization protests, civil disobedience, and nonviolent direct action across the country — but especially in state capitals — are the biggest risk factors for political violence.
On the other hand, one particular Far Left course of action I’m looking at is “smaller but more violent.”
I still think most Far Left elements are exhausted and not looking forward to immediately launching another 2020-style insurrection, which is why we haven’t seen the mass participation that most have expected. This movement will probably take years to rebuild. As an example, it took about four years to build enough momentum to launch the 2020 insurrection.
Last summer, I started doubting that we would have mass protests and riots if Trump won, mainly because of the exhaustion of the Far Left as a movement. Their 2020 insurrection was the low intensity conflict equivalent of a major war, and I don’t believe they’re ready to fight another one so soon.
I hear this on their podcasts — mainly that they’re not ready to mount a major offensive against law enforcement. That’s another reason why the pro-Palestine occupations have died down, and why organizers have failed to build Palestine Action into a major national movement like Black Lives Matter did from 2015-2021. Plus, city mayors and police chiefs are no longer interested in entertaining the rioting and unrest of 2016-2020, hence why pro-Palestine occupations were quickly cleared and why law enforcement has increased efforts to arrest black bloc antifa, as we saw in Seattle, WA in early November.
A “Festival of Resistance” is being promoted for the weekend of 18 January, and is supposed to bring together activists and militants for networking and training sessions across the country. That’s going to be another solid indicator of the strength of the Far Left movement and their anti-Trump response. If recent history is any indicator, the turnout will be underwhelming, just as it has been for most Far Left events. This will be significant because it will show that the Far Left is unlikely to immediately spring back to their 2016-2020 strength under Trump in 2025.
But more than left wing mass mobilization protests, which I think will struggle at least initially, I’m far more concerned about the “true believers” among the Far Left who have said that protests against Trump won’t work, but violence will. The Far Left response to Luigi Mangione’s assassination of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson has been overwhelmingly supportive, and numerous Far Left blogs have promoted assassination of CEOs as a course of action.
I have high confidence that the Trump Resistance 2.0 will be smaller than in 2017-2020, but I am less certain about the level of violence.
President-elect Trump has stated that mass deportations will begin on “Day One,” 20-21 January 2025, giving Far Left militants and social justice activists their first targets in major metro areas.
Videos, media coverage, and social media reaction will likely drive anti-Trump and anti-deportation sentiment, and could create more belligerents. As a result, we could see blockades, protests, and other disruptive forms of direct action against law enforcement and deportation operations in urban areas considered to be Far Left strongholds. This looks like it will be the first major Far Left action of 2025.
The biggest risk for Trump is that mass deportation — which is likely to generate videos of children and abuelitas being perp walked out of apartment buildings — sparks national outrage, which becomes more likely following police-involved violence. Mass arrests of illegal aliens with gang tattoos on their faces is no hurdle, but images of families huddled for deportation is going to be a messaging challenge that likely generates opposition. And that opposition could be fueled into greater mobilization.
The challenge for the progressive activist and Far Left militant alike is moving the mass of the American people from some level of support or acquiescence to some level of opposition or defiance. Media coverage will continue to shape the narrative, but the growing irrelevance of mass media just means that opinion-makers shift from cable news to social media. As has been pointed out elsewhere, there are Twitter accounts reaching more people than CNN and MSNBC programs.
So, that’s where we sit in late December 2024. I appreciate you reading and, as always, post your comments or questions and I’ll do my best to address them. - M.S.