Does the Far Left have a way ahead?

Momentum on the Far Left remains relatively low. There have been at least three Antifa black bloc demonstrations since the Election, and fourth likely but unconfirmed action.

(This is not a comprehensive list of all black bloc activity, however, these are the four events that I’ve seen.)

The first happened in Seattle, Washington – a short-lived march that ended with five arrests. And then three in Portland, Oregon — two confirmed. One was an anti-Trump march where Portland Police made a handful of arrests for graffiti. There was another outside the ICE facility in Portland, where Antifa militants lit a small fire. I don’t believe any arrests were made. And a third unconfirmed from Sunday night, where masked assailants smashed windows at the Multnomah County Elections building. Police investigated and had video of the vandalism, which lasted about two minutes before the assailants fled. This could be the same crew that lit a fire outside the ICE facility one night later.

Now compare this low level activity to January 2017, where over 200 Antifa militants were arrested over Inauguration Day demonstrations. We are looking at weakened, fragmented networks and a lot of dormant affinity groups.

Last weekend, we saw the Festivals of Resistance, which consisted of 20-25 events around the country where left wing militants gathered for the express purpose of attending workshops and training, and starting to rebuild those atrophied networks.

Some of these events had dozens to several hundred people show up, between Far Left militants and more progressive and socialist political activists – this is the umbrella known as the so-called antifascist movement. So we are seeing some limited efforts to regroup.

As previously covered, Antifa continues to face some severe limitations, even in Tier 1 cities like Portland and Seattle; namely, atrophy, the risk of arrest, and a national mood that I don’t think will entertain Far Left violence.

That’s where the movement is today. Now let’s look at some potential courses of action from here. Does Antifa have a way ahead?

Developing Courses of Action for the Far Left is bit difficult because these groups are autonomous (i.e., there is no central authority or command structure), so it’s a bit like asking when and how thunderstorms are going to strike across the United States.

At the Strategic level, however, the Far Left believes in a global revolution against all forms of oppression: all forms of statehood and hierarchical governance, capitalism, and any other structural system they deem oppressive.

As pointed out previously, they believe in their revolution but their big problem is that no one else does. Overthrowing state and federal governments and replacing them with anarcho-communist utopias just isn’t a major goal for Americans.

At the strategic level, that is the Far Left’s primary limitation: their “appeal of program” is not very appealing.

Short of that, their goal remains resistance and open defiance against fascism, i.e., against the Trump administration. To that end, they still desire another national insurrection, which is their immediate operational aim.

According to Major General Samuel Griffith (USMC, Retired) (Peace Be Upon Him), there are six factors by which to judge an insurgency, or in this case another national insurrection:

• Appeal of Program

• Popular Support

• Quality of Leadership & Troops

• Internal Unity

• Operational Terrain

• Sanctuary

These are the six factors that determine the quality of an insurgency. In other words, when an insurgency is superior in each of these qualities, so will their insurgency be. And any deficiencies will negatively affect it.

I’ll give you my perspective on the current conditions across these six factors, and then we can start looking at ways the Far Left might improve those conditions.

• Appeal of Program:

  • At the Strategic level, a Far Left revolution is a non-starter because it’s just not that appealing. The Trump administration would have to cross some major constitutional boundaries before any serious, elite support for any type of revolution formed. (Elite opposition is required for state breakdown.) American elites (not all, but Bezos, Zuckerberg, etc. ) are actually moving to the center and “kissing the ring” at the White House. This trend would have to reverse.

  • The Far Left might look to elicit an egregiously unlawful response by the Trump administration (a return to COINTELPRO-style violations of civil rights, or a Kent State type of event, for instance). Acts of terrorism couched in the moral authority of opposition to fascism might induce that kind of scenario.

• Popular Support:

  • Even liberal and progress city leaders oppose Far Left violence and disruption. The progressive/democratic socialist strongholds of Portland and Seattle are arresting militants for crimes as small as graffiti. America doesn’t have the appetite for it right now.

  • Insurgencies are enabled when established governments fail to solve problems for its citizens. In other words, problems have to become so painful that citizens are more willing to endure the pain of replacing their government than the pain of their existing problems. Support for a socialist alternative to a capitalist system could be driven by sharp or protracted economic, financial, and monetary problems. As we saw during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 (Occupy Wall Street), a financial crisis is probably the best opportunity to build popular support against the capitalist status quo.

• Quality of Leadership & Troops

  • Most Far Left groups are autonomous, meaning there is no central authority or command structure. Individuals and affinity groups are free to choose forms of direct action that suit them, and they at least claim to arrive at major decisions democratically. So “leadership” is probably not the best suited term, however, quality of troops is appropriate. There are volumes of doctrine and lessons learned among Far Left groups, most recently from the 2020 Summer of Love but going back to the Bolshevik Revolution and even socialist insurrections in the mid- to late-1800s. In terms of security culture and discipline, I give those 2016-2021-era militants high marks, although I’m less sure about a younger generation of militants necessary for another insurrection in 2026-2028.

  • Direct action from 2015-2019 was a warm up for 2020. Advice to “start small” and take actions that boost the confidence of less experienced militants is common among Far Left blogs. If the Far Left wants to achieve another 2020-style insurrection, they have to start with low-level activities that inoculate against stress and prioritize good planning, show potential militants that direct action is both fun and effective (“be gay, do crime”), and build up to actions by larger groups for larger effects. Additionally, training events will be a key indicator of future activity. We have seen numerous events for de-arrest training, street medics, security training, etc., but nothing on the order of 2017. When training ramps up, it’s time to pay closer attention.

• Internal Unity

  • Throughout 2015-2021, we saw plenty of Far Left groups fracture. The Far Left is not a monolith. There are groups that hate each other and don’t get along for various reasons: disagreements over violence and “peace policing;” desire to allow a highly experience militant to direct activity or otherwise have some form of authority; and then credible accusations of sexual assault and rape have also fractured well-established groups. These groups are susceptible to in-fighting just like any other and, frankly, that is the Achilles Heel of the movement. Due to its decentralized and autonomous nature, the movement is difficult to stop but not difficult to splinter or fracture. Infiltration of tightly-knit affinity groups is difficult by design, but whisper campaigns, rumors and other forms of grey/black propaganda can be used to spur internecine conflict.

  • Honestly, this is probably the most vulnerable time for the Far Left. Reorganizing means reviving old trust networks and establishing new ones, which are more susceptible to monitoring and infiltrating (as opposed to established, closed affinity groups). Local, state, and federal law enforcement have a vested interest in suppressing Far Left violence, and the federal security apparatus has already signaled they will stop characterizing PTA Moms and Molon Labe flag-waiving GWOT veterans as national security threats. Guess who that leaves more time and attention for: Islamic terrorists and Far Left revolutionaries who openly espouse a desire to overthrow the federal government.

• Operational Terrain

  • The operational terrain has shifted. Geographically, of course, nothing has changed. But the Operational Environment — the human terrain, politics and governance, law enforcement’s stance against political violence — has changed drastically. The conditions favorable to violent and disruptive direct action from 2020 don’t exist anymore. And surveillance cameras and security systems combined with artificial intelligence will almost certainly make detection and tracking faster and easier.

  • Additionally, one of the largest drivers of Far Left organizing from 2015-2021 was actually right wing organizing. Proud Boys, Patriot Prayer, and other right wing groups regularly organized, held meetings and rallies, and had a public events for which there necessitated so-called antifascist opposition. This is one of the largest changes in operational terrain, because those groups either don’t exist anymore or they don’t hold public events. The lack of right wing street action — easily identifiable and accessible in urban settings — is one of the largest reasons for the disappearance of left wing street action. Pending a return of right wing street groups, the Far Left has fewer accessible targets.

• Sanctuary

  • Lastly, I also think sanctuary for Far Left groups has been diminished. While these groups operate independently, they historically rely on or receive support from mutual aid groups and fellow-traveler nongovernmental organizations. They have also depended on politicians, police chiefs, and district attorneys to spin the revolving door of catch and release. In 2020 Portland, for instance, it was not uncommon for Antifa militants to be arrested repeatedly, and then released without charges. I don’t think those conditions exist anymore.

So, is there a way ahead for the Far Left revolution? Yes, but domestic political, economic, and social conditions will have to worsen significantly. A lot of people expect that, and they’re probably not wrong.

Could the Far Left fade into irrelevance?

I’m still working on a strong conclusion, but I will tell you this: pending some domestic crisis that threatens our capitalist system, it’s entirely possible that the Far Left recedes to irrelevance.

I say that because it’s happened before.

The 2015-2025 anarchist and socialist movement is the third iteration of a hundred-year history of attempted Far Left revolutions in the United States.

The first iteration was in the 1910s and 20s. Anarchist and socialist terrorism was not uncommon during and after World War I. In fact, anarchist terrorists mailed a pipe bomb to the home of then-Attorney General Mitchell Palmer, leading to the Palmer Raids of 1919 and 1920. The Department of Justice deported somewhere between hundreds and thousands of anarchists and socialists back to Europe.

Countering these threats was a major line of effort for the FBI, which targeted the Communist Party USA (CPUSA), the Socialist Workers Party, and other anarchist and socialist groups with revolutionary tendencies. Those movements were so heavily targeted that they ultimately collapsed. (If I recall correctly, FBI arrested hundreds of CPUSA members for tax evasion, which was catastrophic for them as a political entity.)

The second iteration was the 1950s-70s, when the FBI began COINTELPRO against the radical and revolutionary Left. These left wing groups included the Weather Underground, Students for a Democratic Society, Symbionese Liberation Front, etc.

By now, you have likely heard of or read the book Days of Rage, (highly recommended read, btw) in which author Bryan Burrough points out FBI data showing that leftist revolutionaries were responsible for over 2,500 domestic bombings within the first 18 months of 1971 and 1972. Although COINTELPRO was exposed and disbanded by 1971, their work (some of it illegal) is largely credited with undermining these groups, and was at least indirectly responsible for their demise.

Of course, Leftist activity didn’t entirely disappear, but it was heavily targeted through domestic law enforcement efforts, which led to the collapse of both iterations of these Far Left movements.

This is not a prediction, but it is not unreasonable to expect — or to at least consider as a possible scenario — given the current social conditions and burnout from 2020, combined with a federal security apparatus willing to defeat Far Left ideology, that a similar outcome can’t be achieved.

Thanks for coming to this week’s TED Talk, and thank you for the support. - M.S.